Пересказ: Scott Horton on Iran and Trump and Israel
Длинное интервью Раяна Доусона (@RyLiberty) со Скоттом Хортоном — автором, подкастёром и директором Libertarian Institute. Обсуждение охватывает: войну США против Ирана, исторические параллели с оккупацией Палестины, манипуляции с Трампом, возможные сценарии выхода из конфликта и шансы на ядерную эскалацию.
Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/scott-horton-on-iran-and-trump-and
Трамп vs. исторические президенты по «счёту крови»
Хортон открывает тему нетривиально: Трамп — не худший президент по числу жертв. Ирак (Буш), Ливия/Сирия (Обама), Вьетнам (многие), санкции в Ираке (Клинтон), Корея (Трумэн) — всё это масштабнее.
- Зора Нил Хёрстон называла Трумэна «мясником Азии» за Японию и Корею
- Разница с прошлым: сейчас есть интернет + Substack + Twitter без цензуры — люди видят преступления власти в реальном времени
- Цитируется тезис: «Палестинцы всегда говорили, что так было 80 лет — просто теперь у них смартфоны»
Израиль 1948 vs. 1967: корень проблемы
Хортон подробно разбирает структурную разницу между двумя этапами:
- 1948 (Накба): Израиль изгнал большинство арабского населения, создал супербольшинство — мог функционировать как «еврейская демократия» пусть и с дискриминацией остатков
- 1967: захватив Западный Берег и Газу, Израиль взял в плен миллионы людей, но избавиться от них политически не смог. Возник неразрешимый конфликт: нужно удерживать людей под военным контролем, чтобы не потерять демократический имидж на Западе
Предупреждение Бен-Гуриона (основателя и первого премьера): «Не берите Западный Берег — превратимся в тюремщиков». Его проигнорировали.
Dawson добавляет: хотели водоносные горизонты Западного Берега, плюс теологический фактор — многие поселенцы искренне верят, что «Бог — риелтор», и вся земля «по Торе» принадлежит им.
«Это войны Израиля»
Центральный тезис Хортона и Доусона — все войны США на Ближнем Востоке инициированы Израилем:
- Нефтедолларовая версия несостоятельна: страны уже давно покупают нефть не в долларах (Япония и Корея торговали с Ираном в иене и воне с 2007 по 2019 год)
- Нефтяные компании не создавали «Офис специальных планов» — разведывательный отдел Пентагона, сфабриковавший данные об иракском ОМУ
- Марко Рубио прямо признал: «Израиль напал, поэтому мы должны были присоединиться»
- Нетаньяху ещё в 2002 году перечислил в Конгрессе: Ирак, Ливия, Сирия, Иран — список стран для смены режима
Текущая война с Ираном: стратегические ошибки
Хортон и Доусон детально разбирают провалы военного планирования:
Израиль инициировал атаку раньше срока: второй авианосец не был ещё на позиции, план не был готов. Предполагалось быстрое крушение Ирана — «как Bay of Pigs, антикастровские кубинцы придут и возьмут власть». Плана Б не было.
Военные возможности США иссякают:
- Примерно 900 ракет Patriot уже передислоцированы (один радар оказался в Турции после уничтожения остальных)
- Запасы Tomahawk и планирующих бомб заканчиваются — осталось на ~2 недели
- Пополнение невозможно быстро: только сборка Patriot-3 занимает 2 года с учётом дефицита комплектующих и редкоземельных металлов
- Высадка на острове Харк — «Battlefield 4, уровень в видеоигре»: объявлено заранее, Иран готов
- Проблема Ормузского пролива: 1000 миль в длину, 6 миль в глубину; иранские наземные пусковые установки мобильны, прячутся под землёй; для взятия берега нужно 300 000 солдат, а не 3 000
Цепочка ответственности: военные говорят президенту «yes sir, my Marines will get it done» — никто не говорит «невозможно». Это диффузия ответственности.
Предупреждения, которые проигнорировали
- Председатель Объединённого комитета начальников штабов слил в WSJ за 3 дня до войны: «предупреждаю — это не сработает»
- Национальный разведывательный совет подготовил NIE: смены режима не будет, не делайте этого
- Военные игры показали именно этот сценарий (ещё со времён учений Van Riper)
Сценарии выхода: оптимистичный и пессимистичный
Оптимистичный (Хортон): Трамп объявляет «победу» — «я разгромил их флот, авиацию, связь, лидерство, нам больше не нужны базы на Ближнем Востоке» — и выводит войска. Аналог: Йемен, где он воевал 7 недель, потом объявил победу и ушёл. Вероятность: мала, но возможна.
Пессимистичный: Трамп попытается провести «вариант Никсона» — массированные бомбардировки для «победного» финала. Это не откроет Ормузский пролив. Иран продолжит атаки. США углубятся как во Вьетнам. Когда погибнут морские пехотинцы, американцы разозлятся, хотя их сами туда послали.
Оба согласны: Иран не остановит атаки на Израиль вне зависимости от того, что сделают США.
Израиль и «фактор Хезболлы»
- Хезболла и Иран продолжат воевать с Израилем независимо от действий США
- Израиль не просил союзников войти в Ормузский пролив: спрашивал Францию, Китай, Италию, Японию — но не Израиль
- Хортон саркастически: «Хотите плацдарм — пусть IDF сами его создают в Иране. Мы высадим их там. Сколько можно ждать от нас трибьюта?»
Купол Скалы: шесть заговоров
Израильский собеседник в интервью Такеру Карлсону назвал 6 реальных заговоров с целью уничтожения мечети Аль-Акса / Купола Скалы. Хортон: он знал минимум об одном (фильм «Привратники» / The Gatekeepers). Один заговор в конце 1980-х включал австралийских христиан — план подорвать с подземными тоннелями и свалить на христиан для «священной войны».
Нынешний сценарий (по Dawson): Иран якобы атакует Купол Скалы ракетой. Суннитский мир должен возмутиться. Но это не сработает: всем очевидно, что угрозу Аль-Акса несут израильские поселенцы, а не шиитский Иран.
Религиозные фанатики в администрации
Беспокойство Хортона: Хегсет, Хакаби и другие в окружении Трампа искренне ждут возвращения Мессии и считают Армагеддон — религиозным предназначением. Это поднимает вопрос: не воспользуются ли они ядерным оружием, считая себя орудием Провидения?
Параллельно — иронический момент: Бен Шапиро 42 года, возраст призыва подняли до 42 лет. «Есть ли ростовые ограничения?»
Финальная позиция Dawson
«Израиль заслуживает всего, что получает. Америка должна уйти. Мы должны торговать с Ираном, Ираком и всеми этими странами — просто покупать нефть. Это стоит гораздо дешевле, чем пытаться её украсть. Пусть Израиль сам разбирается со своими проблемами».
Скотт Хортон: подкаст «The Scott Horton Show» (@ScottHortonShow), книги, Libertarian Institute, antiwar.com, TheFactsAboutIran.com (новый ресурс). Совместное шоу с Дарилом Купером на YouTube.
🧾 Транскрипт (формат)
Scott Horton on Iran and Trump and Israel
Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/scott-horton-on-iran-and-trump-and
Lunatics. Okay. Scott Horton, the great Scott Horton, who is an award winner. I can call you an award winner now because you got an award from Dr. Pepper.
It was pretty nice. The Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania gave me that. Dr. Pepper Peace Prize, they called it.
Take it, man. Top seller, author extraordinaire.
I'm sorry, that rolling my eyes and throwing my hands up was not about the Dr. Pepper Peace Prize. It was about the people stomping around and slamming doors in my house. Sorry. I have nothing but gratitude and respect for people who gave me that Dr. Pepper Peace Prize.
You got to honor Dr. Pepper, man. I want something from them. um like a year worth of marginal marvel digital comics which was great because i used to be a night watchman at a motel and so i had a lot of time in the morning and nothing else to do so i read all 600 spider-man all right i want to kick this off with uh it says it's from iran i don't i can't verify that but somebody made a sweet ai video that i'd like to play and then we'll get into the war I missed a couple seconds. You got to get this eagle screech. It's awesome. It puts a little historic perspective there. You're watching everything from the genocide of Native Americans down to, I think that's a statue of Baal, but they had Epstein Island in there, Vietnam, Hiroshima. And I was thinking, I keep saying, man, this fat orange monster is the worst president ever, but Death toll wise, he really isn't. If you think about all the people killed in Vietnam, all the people that died from Clinton's sanctions in Iraq and then Bush's war in Iraq and Obama invading Libya and Syria and the hundreds of thousands that died there.
Casualty wise, this isn't that bad, you know?
Yeah. Harry Truman was really Lincoln.
Like they're all there's much worse than Trump.
Yeah, Zora Neale Houston called Truman the butcher of Asia for his crimes in Japan as well as Korea. And really, he did a lot to get the ball rolling in Vietnam before Eisenhower or Kennedy ever got there as well.
That's true. And the Koreas are still divided from that war. So I still don't like Trump, but I feel like The only difference is between this and even as recently as Biden and Obama, I mean, Biden gave the JDMs to Israel. They dropped on Gaza. He starts the war in Ukraine. He was pretty bad. Obama with Libya and Syria. Bush the lesser with Iraq. It was no and Afghanistan. God, too many to keep track of. There's Kosovo, too. There's some others in there. Grenada, Panama, Waco. yeah, we killed our own people. Like the same things they accused Saddam of doing Clinton actually did. Uh, it's just, it's so bad. And, but the difference is the media back then there really wasn't an internet for most of the things I just named, or it was just a baby. And now, um, I mean, there was an internet with Biden, but it wasn't liberated yet. We didn't have Elon Musk. We didn't have a substack, really. So now we do.
People are aware of the crimes that the government is doing. But it really has always been like this, hasn't it?
You know, I saw a really smart tweet from, I'm sorry, man, I forget this guy, his heritage, Safe Dean Amous. I forgot if he's Palestinian or what. And I'm sure I'm saying his name wrong. I'm sorry, dude. But anyway, point being that he says, you know, as the Palestinians have been trying to tell you it's been like this for 80 years it's just that now finally palestinians have smartphones and so they can show you this in high quality footage that you have access to it but the cruelty of the zionists has basically been there all along and because you know unlike in the stories it wasn't a land without people it was a land with people And they had to somehow be gotten rid of. And then it was decided that cruelty will have to be how we get rid of the people. You know? I'm going to quote my son here.
Giant bulldozers. It was a land with people for people without a conscience.
Yeah, exactly. And so, and then... you know, I don't know exactly how you feel about this. Probably different than me. Um, you know, who knows, whatever, I'm not so committed to it as like, whatever. It's not, I don't even care. It's just, you know, my, uh, my guess i guess is that if we're really just talking about the founding of 48 and the state and the ethnic cleansing of the nakba and all of that and even denying the right to return to all but a small percentage or whatever um but without the 67 war and without the occupation of the west bank and gaza ever in east jerusalem ever since the 67 war I think that probably the majority, maybe a significant majority of the controversy would not exist. I think what it really is, is, you know, in other words, Ryan, in the scheme of things, right? Again, this is like descriptive, not normative. When they did the Nakba, they literally got rid of the people there.
They created an 80-20, super-duper majority Jewish state. And so they could call it a democracy in a Jewish state, and they could kind of run it that way and whatever. And the Palestinian Christians and Muslims, of course, are second- and third-class citizens within those borders. I'm not saying it's totally equal rights or whatever, Massachusetts. But anyway... at that time as you know egypt controlled gaza and jordan controlled um the west bank and never mind why and all that too many tangents but the point being in the 67 war when the israelis took control of gaza and the west bank they wanted that land especially the west bank they wanted that land They didn't have a solution of what to do with all those people. By then, there's millions of people, at least one or two million in the West Bank. I'm not sure the exact number in Gaza. Of course, it's much higher now. But they were essentially kidnapping millions of people, whereas the project before was to cleanse them off the land and take the land and make a new country there.
In this case, for political reasons, basically, they were unable to complete the cleansing of the West Bank. They took the land, but they also took possession of the people. And then they enslaved them under this totalitarian martial law because they had no other way to deal with them and maintain their supermajority Jewish status so they could claim to be a democracy and justify their existence to the West. so that was the conundrum that they got themselves in i'm sorry i'll shut up in just one sec i know you're trying to say something just second but one last thing about this is that it was david ben-gurion i learned this from daryl cooper's thing david ben-gurion the founding prime minister of israel had said after the 67 war we should not be doing this we should give up the West Bank and Gaza back to Jordan and Egypt and not take the responsibility of this. Screw that land. We got our Israel already.
If we take that land, we take all those people, it's just going to turn us into jailers. It's going to turn us into militarists in a way that we don't want to be. And they told him, yeah, yeah, yeah, shut up, founding, longest serving prime minister of Israel. What do you know about this? And they sidelined him and they went with the Hawks, with the Likud and this greater Israel project, which has created this just I want to say it's an untenable situation, Ryan, but it's been like this since nine years before I was born, man. There has been this essentially like Soviet communist level military occupation of these people. It's an absolute horror show.
So I just would change one word from the cleansing to exile because they didn't murder 700,000 people. It just forced them out. They murdered enough of them. to force them to leave. Now they're cleansing people. And they wanted the aquifers in the West Bank. They wanted that water. So they were going to steal it. And then there's this estochological view. It's part of the theology that they think God's a real estate agent. All that land belongs to them because it's in their storybook. And that sounds retarded to you and I. And it is. But from their auspices, they really think that stuff is true. And they have orders from God. They think all of that is theirs. And some of them believe That's not even the borders. They want greater Israel. The pragmatists would say, no, you just want access to all the waterways. You want to hit the Red Sea and the Strait of Homoose, and you want all that territory for trade and blah, blah, blah.
But like, well, yeah, why do you think the people who made up the religion made it up that way? Because they realize that as well. But that doesn't mean the people following it are that deep into it. They just think this is a commandment from above. And they really just don't even have remorse in murdering babies or whatever. They're like, this Amalek, oh, you're just a bunch of goyim. Like, they're so racist. These settlers that just go in and say, if I didn't steal it, someone else would. This is the mindset of a pure lunatic state, as Norman Finkelstein often likes to say, where, at least in America, you got to lie to people. If you want to send us to war, you got to give us some flimsy pretext. Oh, they're building a bomb. Oh, they have WMDs. Oh, they killed their own people. Something. But with Israelis, you don't need an excuse. You're just like, they're not Jewish, so we can kill them.
And that's about all that you have to say. And this is just and I want to really stress this to people that we are not at war with Iran for any other reason than Israel. It is not the petrodollar. That's the exact opposite. They were happy trading in dollars until we put sanctions on them. And we only put sanctions on them because of Israel. It's not anything. It's Israel. These are Israel's wars. They wrote the script a long time ago. It comes from Netanyahu's book before the Wesley Clark, you know, famous seven countries mass. That's all from Netanyahu. And he sat there in 2002 and spelled it out at a hearing saying, well, you know, after Iraq, Libya, Syria, blah, blah, blah. This is their war. This has nothing to do with any war. recent decisions about uranium or anything like that as you know it was just they wanted to use the guys in negotiations so they could kill the ayatollah so they could attack around for the fourth time this is true promise for israel started all four wars and they've dragged the u.s into it but i'll tell you the other reason though could we you just mentioned gaza west bank and walk through the knock button that's just like the beginning of the horror story And you said, well, they have cell phones.
And I agree with that point. But I think the other thing is this, and this is just a Machiavellian take. I don't think all those kids in Gaza getting blown to bits matter to most people. I think paying $4 for gas matters to people. I think that's why they're paying attention, because it affects them personally.
No, that's true. Although, you know what it is, though, too, man, is... I give a lot of grace to regular civilians around me because I know that they don't know much about it. They're not even much interested in this. And they do know rationally that they don't have any effect on it whatsoever. They never could and that they don't know anything. And they hope that their government wouldn't be blowing up people who really didn't deserve it or that they would not be as careful as possible and, you know, kind of thing or hope that they would be as careful. And it's a democracy. You got to trust the people you elect to do the best they can. And you know, that kind of crap. It's the same kind of thing. I give the Israeli population a little bit of grace too. You know, I remember an old poll that had it where, and this is old, but relevant, I think still, that in the days of Ariel Sharon, where it was a pretty solid majority wanted a two-state solution to deal with Arafat and to give up the West Bank and Gaza Strip on whatever, Rabin lines, not a full-fledged state, but yes, deal with them, make peace, and let's end this thing like gentlemen.
But if Ariel Sharon's going to go to the Temple Mount and provoke an intifada, well, then we want Ariel Sharon to protect us from the intifada because we need a guy who's a tough guy who's going to provide security from the conflict that he's stoked here, which of course is why he did it. I mean, that was the whole thing to ruin the peace deal. And so he can seize power for himself. And Well, build the wall then. Keep them out. If they're going to suicide bomb us, because of what our leaders have done, at least build the wall and protect us from the suicide bombers you promote. The same way that if Bill Clinton's going to build up these, and Obama and whoever are going to build up these suicide cadres, Tulsi, at least please keep them from landing on these shores.
You get the Oslo Accords with Ehud Barak and Bill Clinton, both Epstein clients, making a deal that was never a deal. And it wasn't a generous offer. It wasn't getting out of the West Bank. They still controlled everything of importance. Well, it was not this.
I mean, it was some substantial bit. And I don't mean, oh, they'll offer at Camp David that time because, of course, that was a screw job and they blamed it all on AirFat and all of that kind of thing. But I'm talking about what was what the Israeli public was being asked in the poll, what they believed was on offer was here's Barack is trying to do this deal. Do you support it or not? Do you want to make a deal with Arafat and try to end this thing peacefully by giving up land for peace, as they called it? Not that it was theirs to give up, but to allow the Palestinians to have. a pseudo state of some kind. And they said, yes, the Israeli people did support that. If they couldn't get that, they could only get war. They wanted a tough guy who could win the war. That's my point. So it's the same thing now where the polls say, well, the Israeli people say that they support whatever Netanyahu is doing against the enemy here.
But of course, you and I can see from the outside that, yeah, Netanyahu's made a lot of deadly enemies for them. so yeah they need a strong leader but like it's the people i want the people to remember why they need us and netanyahu is exploiting the people of his country for his power the same way that our government exploits us and lies to us and scares us and so in other words if netanyahu just fell away and some decent gentleman became the prime minister of Israel somehow. And he wanted to lead that country toward a reasonable accommodation with their neighbors, including the Palestinians. They probably would support that too, if they had good leadership to lead them in that direction. And I think that's probably the same thing here. Ron Paul was the president and was doing the right thing. People would support it and they'd love it, even though it wasn't their idea to pursue that agenda.
Does that make sense?
Yeah, I guess it's the cart before the horse, because in order for Ron Paul to become president, you'd have to have such a culture that would accept that in the first place. And instead, even when it was just him versus John McCain, they still voted for McCain, who I thought was dead, by the way, yet the Gerald Ford still caught on fire.
Really, Ryan? I mean, they stole 2012 from Dr. Paul. There's a book about this. I'm sorry I can never memorize the title of the book, but it's a slim little baby blue colored monograph thing is the paperback on Amazon.
I know he wore it in Iowa and they put him at number two anyway.
Yeah, and they screwed them in New Hampshire and in Nevada and I believe in South Carolina. These are the crucial swing states in those primaries, and they just completely screwed. I mean, in Nevada, they dissolved the Republican Party and created a new one and then nominated their
guy. He got 42% in Virginia, and he was getting single-digit numbers, and then suddenly he gets 42%. I was like, what did they do, not cheat? What happened there?
Yeah, they were maybe able to cheat on the polls, but when it came down to the ballots, they weren't able to prevent that organization. He did win this one.
He did win the Virgin Islands.
And look, Obama would have still beat him in 12 because the bubble was still being formed and not breaking yet kind of thing on the upswing from the last crash. And he was the incumbent and Americans like presidents. Obama, as many people hated him. He had a lot of people who really loved him and supported him too. So he probably would have beat Dr. Paul. who would have been the challenger from George Bush's party and all of that kind of thing. So he may have still lost, but he would have attacked Donald. I mean, he would have attacked Obama from the Ron Paul instead of from the Romney for half a year. And that would have been beautiful at least.
And I mean, Bush got elected after the Iraq war. So I don't know. I look at the Israelis like you have internationally illegal settlements. You're just squatting on people's land that you straight up annexed. Yeah, they're not like in the streets rebelling about this or quite. They're just like build some more. And it never is like other than a few tiny Orthodox groups. They're not out there. We like stop settling on like you cannot simultaneously colonize your neighbor and pretend like you want peace. I just, yeah, I don't believe in nothing from that.
But it still is millions of people and it's some people doing this and other people doing other things. You know what I mean? So it's, it's not my age.
Well, it's never all of it, but it's like a super majority is okay with ethnic cleansing and always have been. The fact that they're squatting there, they're not doing there at all. Like that's like, they're coming from Brooklyn to come take someone's house. That's messed up. It's a manifest 2.0. It's the same hatred they had for American Indians. It's at that level. And I'm seeing that with some Americans, too, about Iran. They're like the evil Muslims. They're the greatest purveyor of terrorism around the world. Because anything Sunnis have ever done, often sponsored by other states, they just blame all of it on the Muslims. And so then Iran is now responsible for everything Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sponsored around the globe.
But see, that's another example, I think, that could go the other way, where if Donald Trump, somehow Netanyahu had a stroke or whatever, and Donald Trump was free, and he could just go over there and make a deal with the Ayatollah, maybe too late now, after he killed him. Yeah. If he'd gone over there and made a deal with the Ayatollah, then MAGA would rally around that. Donald Trump, the great peacemaker. Yeah, they almost had it.
They're like, fine, here's the uranium. It was on the table. And the Israelis were like, no, we don't really want a deal. And they went and hit them anyway. can you imagine losing your father your wife and your daughter and then being the leader of iran or any country you're not going to negotiate you know yeah i was uh
i was musing at first about boy what if at pearl harbor they'd hit a girl's school and killed an oklahoma city federal building worth of them and in oklahoma city there was a daycare center there i believe it was like 22 something like that
children were there but the rest of them why he was part of the united states then too
Well, yeah, exactly. But then also I forgot about this and I didn't really think of this too, but like, what if they had also killed FDR? Now I know you're going to crack a joke about that would have been better. But no, the point is that he had just been elected for his third term, right? And had a solid base of support in this country and was highly revered as a president, whether we agree with that or not.
And let's say they were in the middle of negotiations when they did it.
Yeah. And, you know, people had their fireplace and stuff. And so what if they had killed 180 little girls and Roosevelt and the Navy in their surprise attack?
They did a sneak attack in a row.
Yeah. I mean, we had never had them after the war. We had kept nuking them until we were out of nukes and maybe we'd have kept nuking them after that. Right. I mean, the level of outrage that we would feel in that same situation. And it's great because we have such it's a great analogy. I mean, because we have such a perfect corollary with the surprise attack at Pearl Harbor, only add a girls school and a dead FDR to it. Boy, would that be an outrage? And boy, would Truman have not got firebombed in those cities.
Yeah, I'm sorry. Go ahead. The information of the blockade on Japanese oil, that the USS Ward had sank a Japanese mini sub, that they'd broken the communications, all that. You just ignore all that and pretend like it was an attack out of the blue for no reason. And then start the story. And also erase the, like, if the Rand situation, they've been attacked three previous times, preemptively. Plus, you had Stuxnet, assassination of scientists, and all this other petty stuff they did in the in-between. And the question that Trump got asked about why didn't you inform your allies, even if you thought... The evil Japanese attacked out of the blue for no reason in a sneak attack. It doesn't work because he wasn't asking, why didn't you inform your enemy? He said, why didn't you inform your ally? And he just never answered. He made that joke. I'll tell you what happened, though. Takeuchi took a big breath and looked at her watch twice, which is really offensive.
And I mean, in Japanese culture, you don't do that. Even nowadays, most people don't have watches because they get their cell phone as a clock, but they just kind of. through the thing. And it's, it's like doing this, like, it's like you, the Japanese foreign minister went to Iran before she would, before the prime minister even got back to Japan, they'd already made a deal to get their oil out of the Hormuz and they paid for it. So it was like, good, good job. You just lost the other than China. That's the next biggest markets, Japan. And they're already going to deal with Iran saying like, look, um, We'll buy oil from you. And they used to anyway, from 2007 to 2019, when NATO and everybody was sanctioning Iran, both Korea and Japan kept buying oil from Iran and they did it in yuan and yen. They didn't use dollars.
And they got, they got passes from the U S to do that. Huh?
I think I remember Japan got a pass to eventually buy oil from Russia. And i don't some i think they did bilateral trades there so sometimes it was in rubles or whatever but um korea will won't korea hates russia but they do buy coal from them but yeah that's the only reason it ended in 2019 is it was better logistics to buy from the russians than it was from iran so they started on that but whatever like all these people are like they're gonna stop using dollars i'm like they haven't used dollars for over a decade and a half anyway that's There is no rule saying you have to buy oil in dollars. A lot of countries buy it in their own currency. But it's just a blame shift away from the Israeli role and dragging us into all these wars. These oil companies did not create the Office of Special Plans and generate a war in Iraq. No, they did not. No. It wasn't like any Petro and anything that sponsored ISIS in Syria.
And same thing with Libya and all that. It's Israel. It is. Yeah. god they need to know that especially this one after this the fourth time they're attacking and even marco or excuse me narco rubio gets in and say well the israel's attack so he had to join like he straight up admits it and he's like no maybe you know maybe maybe we made them do it well let me ask you about that because i i'm
very dubious about that part of the story i mean obviously i still blame israel anyway but i just think that the real narrative is That Netanyahu convinced Trump to do this, not that he blackmailed and browbeat him into it in that way.
Oh, I agree. I just don't think it was supposed to be on that day. They had another carrier on the way, wasn't in place yet, and they preempted it because they met in Margo. The plans were made. Trump had already sent the Lincoln out there and the refuelers like he was going to do it. You could tell like it was coming. But I don't think they wanted it then. They're like, wait, we're dragging this out. We're not ready. And because Trump, I mean, he has no problem. They decided back in June, we got to do this together because Israel just didn't have the firepower. so it was common it's on the list they knew trump would grab his ankles for israel i don't think they really thought it would last they really seem to believe we'll kill the ayatollah it'll collapse and like the iranian people it's like a bay of pigs saying don't worry the anti-crash of cubans are going to come take over like they really thought this wouldn't happen they didn't anticipate well what if it doesn't what if iran destroys the gulf states and then starts bombing israel what's your plan b There was no plan B. That's right.
No, they're weak and brittle. You just hit them and they'll knock right over. Trust me, dog. Trust me.
Well, with a genius like Pete Hegseth, how did we get into this mess? At least with The Rock, there were people that said, look, you're going to make a quagmire. It was half and half. I'm really disappointed in people like Tulsi Gabbard because I feel like she knows better. She's not an idiot and she's doing it anyway. Hegseth's a moron. Huckabee, all these people that think they're bringing back Jesus. Yeah, they're that dumb. They'll just listen to the Israelis. But there's got to be some people in the administration that say, this is a horrible idea. If it doesn't collapse... They have enough ballistic missiles and we don't have enough interceptors and we don't have enough standoff munition and dah, dah, dah, dah, dah.
Well, look, Ryan, I mean, they, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff leaked that to the Wall Street Journal like three days before the war. Hey, don't anybody say I didn't warn you because I'm warning you right now. I warned him. And remember, because Trump said, oh, good old Raisin Cain. He never said any such thing. We totally did. That was before the war. um and very soon after the war began in the washington post it said the entire national intelligence council had put together an nie saying this wouldn't work to achieve a regime change don't do it i believe both of those they had war games too
that's even worse like they war gamed it out and this is exactly what happens now
were there newer war games
I don't know, but even... You're just talking about the Van Riper stuff from back when. Even then, they knew that that was a possibility. I don't know if they knew about the number of munitions and stuff, because if they did, why would you go in with like 900 Patriots? They had to move that system out of... And I think that radar ended up in Turkey anyway, because all the other radars got blown up. It's like a billion dollars, these things. And it's the standoff munitions, too. They don't have enough tomahawks and glide bombs and whatnot. They've got like two weeks of those left. And I think what's about to happen over the weekend is they're going to do a Nixon where they're just going to try and have a war ending assault. uh which will fail and because once they're out of those they're super vulnerable because if you go in with jay dams and jasms your planes can get shot down too because you're within range of the anti-air ways you're sitting over rock fire and you can do that for a little while but every one of those missiles cost you millions of dollars and they can't just make new ones they don't have the supply chain they don't have the components they don't have rare earth it's like six different problems is why you can't do that and i don't think trump understands that he's like we're making more like yeah that's it takes two years just to get to the assembly stage for a patriot three so you're not making more you can't let me
ask you something man what do you think is going to happen here I don't see any good off ramps other than Trump saying, okay, fine. I didn't achieve anything, but I'm saying I did and leave, which I think would be really difficult to do. And, and, you know, we can't just like, you know, I'm sorry. What?
With Yemen, with the Houthis, he went to war with them for like seven weeks. And then he's like, I won. And that's true. Yeah, that's true. He closed and they kept shooting Israel and they just stopped reporting it. And then somehow he got away with it. I'm fine.
Yeah.
Like, okay, you idiot. You killed a bunch of civilians and waste a lot of money. But yeah. Take the W. It is a win if he stops in a way.
But some people are saying that, look, the Iranians aren't going to quit. They're going to keep attacking and attacking and attacking to really rub his face in shit and make sure that he never does this again. Despite the fact that like probably the old Ayatollah would not do that. But he's dead now.
not going to stop attacking israel and neither will hezbollah because israel's attacking them so that's going to continue regardless of what america does maybe they won't wipe out the u.s bases because it'll be some condition in order for the u.s to leave that you have to leave the gulf but trump could be like you know i obliterated no he doesn't say obliterate he says obliviated for some reason i obliviated iran so bad that That they're no longer a threat. We don't even need to be in the Middle East anymore. So we're bringing all them home. Whatever he's got to say. That's cool.
Just like, yeah, we defeated the Taliban. That's why we can leave Afghanistan. Fine, dude.
That's what you want to call it. You're so awesome. You took out their Navy, their Air Force, their communications, their leadership. So we don't really need any bases in the Middle East. I mean, look, this is what you're saying is optimistic you.
Yeah, I mean, this is a very optimistic take. I appreciate it. I mean, I was afraid, and I guess I still am, that he's not going to find a way to back out of this that he really likes, and they're going to end up getting him really upset and emotional and do something stupid. Oh, I don't think this is happening.
What would be an off-ramp, and I'm giving the most optimistic...
Okay. That's take one.
Yeah. That he could do that and just, and just be like, I want to leave. And all of us would be like, yep, you sure did. Cause we just don't want to start it. Yeah. You're awesome. Great fat orange monster, whatever. But more than likely he's so stupid. He's going to try the Nixon option where like Nixon really bombed the heck out of the North Vietnam. And yeah, You know, but it's just you can't defeat a country the size of Western Europe geographically with 93 million people with a few hundred planes, even if they stood still. And you can't get rid of the land batteries that are keeping the straight close, which is a thousand miles long and six miles deep. by just randomly strafing and dropping bombs you got something the size of south vietnam and you're trying to hit something the size of a gun with bombs that blow up in the meters okay and they're mobile and they know when you're coming so you can just duck back underground or You cannot open the straight through force unless you want to send in like 300,000, not 3,000, 300,000 soldiers and take over the shoreline.
And you could do that and you'd probably lose about 50,000 of those guys because you got to cross cliffs and mountains and so on. He needs some sort of W. I think he's going to try and get some islands in the Gulf of Omen. I don't think he's going to Carg Island because why would you announce we're going here with this ship with this many men?
I know. It's just been crazy. The level of... Yeah. Hey, guess what? We're calling up the Delta. We're calling up the seals. We're calling up those 75th Rangers and we're calling up these guys. We're going to send these guys to this island on this day in five days.
Like, Oh my God. Nah, it's, it's a battlefield four planned. It's a stage in a video game. You can tell Kushner put this idea in his head. uh but i think that's like we're mobilizing the kurds over escorting ships it's just hot air something to say to the markets to try to act like the war is almost
over man i hope you're right about that because you know you guys getting blown to bits over there on the ground they're going to escalate like crazy from there
they're going to get blown up before they even get to the ground if people talked about tilt rotor Ospreys, I'm like, okay, those carry 24 soldiers max. All right. You're not going to just sit there going back and forth with a bunch of Ospreys. And if you go the aquatic way, which you can carry a hundred people, um, you got to go through the entire straight right to get there and you're not going to make it.
And the Iranians have already proved that they can reach out and touch boats all up and down that Gulf. It's Gator Hormuz, nothing. They blew up two carriers right off the coast or two oil tankers right off the coast of Iraq and Kuwait.
Yep. And it's just, and there, Oh, you're coming here on this day. So I think that is a play fake, but yeah, They have mobilized the 82nd Airborne and they did send the Tripoli from Okinawa that is on the way to do something. But I think a more doable, and this is me assuming they're not retarded, which is probably dumb on my part, but a more doable objective would be taking the lesser and greater Tomb Islands near the UAE or something in the Gulf of Omen where they have less, Iran has less firepower. But then I thought you can't even hold on to your bases on the other side of the straight in Kuwait and Qatar and Bahrain. How are you going to hold something in the middle of the straight, much less on the shore of Iran? It ain't going to happen. Not with a few thousand guys like you need to.
I'm afraid that. There is a thing in the military where they're just going to tell the president, yes, sir, we can do it. Whatever it is, we'll figure it out. Those are your orders. My Marines will get it done. And that is terrifying because it's the diffusion of responsibility in a way where like, hey, the president told me to do it. It's not my job to tell him I can't. It's my job to make it happen. So nobody tells him that we can't. You know what I mean? That can happen, dude. goddamn it's this whole thing is a government program you know what i mean we're always get caught up on the coup party doctrine and whatever but this is also the
pentagon it's the whole structure of it whether it's just a bunch of order following apes and they're like oh we'll send these young teenagers to get their limbs blown off
and and donald trump look a huge part you can see it in the headlines it's the political calculation overall that how does he solve this in a way that looks good for him right it's not a question of well we just call no confidence and appoint a new prime minister tomorrow who didn't do this and who can now try to resolve it um it's him and he's there and Public choice theory is in full effect. It's not the national interest. It's Donald Trump's interest. He's the one who gets to decide all of this.
And he needs a face-saving way to just leave. But it was like, look, Reagan just left. You know, there's a big, you know, lost a bunch of Marines. And he said, you know what? We were shelling them. That's the event that led to that. Just get out of there. And I don't think people would be that mad if you're like, look, you hit them pretty good. That's enough. Get out. I mean, it's Israel's war. They started it for the fourth time. Let the Israeli Navy go into the Strait of Hormuz. He didn't even ask them. He asked France. He asked China. He asked Italy, Japan. He didn't ask the Israelis, the ones that started the war. Why?
In fact, I would even volunteer the U.S. Air Force to drop off the IDF. on the, on the, uh, straight of Hormuz on the Iranian side and let them secure that beachhead and reopen the, uh, the gate for us, the straight there. And that would be, you know, their tribute to the empire. Don't they owe us a couple?
Drop off the IDF. I'd like to drop them off, drop them off middle of Gaza, but don't give them weapons.
Drop them off in the middle of Tehran. See how long they last. But especially if they want this beachhead, they want us to create this beachhead.
Yeah.
They should do it.
Yeah, but they won't, and our guys will try. No one's going to be able to do it.
Did you see on the internet they were pointing out there on the Twitter that Ben Shapiro is 42 years old, and they just increased the enlistment age to 42? Is that right?
Is there a height requirement, though?
Oh, that's a good question. Quite possibly. I think there's a voice octave requirement.
I think you've got to be under six feet to be a pilot. But for everything else, you need to be above, I don't know, 5'1 or something like that, I guess. So I don't know if he'd make it without his lips and his shoes. Yeah. I don't get why short people lie. Like, just be what you are. But he's like, I'm five, nine. I'm like, no, you're not. And it's not like you're almost that either. You're not even close to that. Why do you say that? Just be little guys.
You know, I actually, I actually measured myself at the Home Depot the other day because I wanted to make sure that I haven't shrunk. And no, I'm still five, eight and I'll take it. Fuck it, man.
Yeah, I met you before. First word out of your mouth. You were surprisingly tall when I met you. You're like a good 6'2", right? 6'1". I had too much headroom in my camera. I think tall people don't care. So they're just like, they just... Don't try to present as big online or whatever. I don't know. You're a pretty big dude. You play basketball? People think I'm small. I'm 220 pounds. I was an athlete. I don't know. Whatever. I'm a skater, man.
I skate the big ramp. So I'm that kind of tough only.
Well, I had a twin brother, little brother, five step brothers. So I had a lot of. i was the oldest so i keep everybody in line but it's just that you get these like jarheads like uh hegseth you know i love the snl skits on him he's like yeah you chose getting your protein he's just there with his tattoos and he's like filming himself lifting weights and stuff i think man and it's the department of war which is funny because that is the original name the Bureau of Indian affairs was under the department of war and they stuck it in interior to make it sound better. But BIA, we just call it bossing Indians around. Hey, it's these little nasty things. And they're talking about bringing back the Messiah and all this weird stuff, which makes me wonder if, if they're crazy enough to use nuclear weapons, because they're talking about bringing about Armageddon,
you know, um, um, I only saw the headline because I was not able to finish this interview when Tucker interviewed the Israeli guy the other day. But I saw the headline that at some point in that interview, I saw about half of it, I guess. At some point in that interview, he told Tucker that there were, I think he said, I think the headline said, or the quote said, six different attempts by Israeli religious kooks to blow up the Dome of the Rock on the Al-Aqsa Mosque. Now, I knew of at least one of these because of that movie, The Gatekeepers, which is the documentary about the former heads of Shin Bet who were very against the right and the occupation and all that. They denounce, call it apartheid and all that. And they had a thing in there about how these kooks almost blew up the Al-Aqsa Mosque. And I think...
They tunneled under it.
They had this Christian guy. It was like in the late 80s, the plot that they were talking about here. And then the shin bet caught them and stopped them. But apparently this guy says there were six different real credible plots against it. I don't know how far they all went. They were going to blow it up from underneath was the plot because they tunneled
under there for archaeology.
And they did plant explosives. I mean, they were ready to go. I covered it.
I did a whole, like, it's on BitChute because, you know, they erased all my everything else. And unfortunately, it's very hard to find because there's no, like, searchability on BitChute. You know, you have to, like, just go until you find the one with the Alaska Mosque. Yeah. They had these Australian Christians that were going to do it. They wanted to blame it on Christians and try to start a holy war. That wouldn't work. This is their mindset. In this one, they'd say Iran did it. Iran hit it with a missile or whatever. I don't think the Sunni would do anything, honestly. I think they're scared to death because Iran can just desalinate or, I guess, resalinate that whole area in seconds. They're completely dependent on that for water. they already import 80% of their food and they're not able to get that. Like that's why, and they were in the straight.
Why would, why would any of those Sunni populations believe? I mean, I guess if they're just because they have IQ average of 83.
Yeah.
I mean, maybe, but I, They ought to be able to get it that it ain't the Shiites threatening Al-Aqsa right now, dude.
Why would the Kurds cannon fodder in Iraq and Syria over and over again? They get betrayed constantly. But I don't know. We see the cannon fodder all the time, all through North Africa, Syria, and so on. So there is a good portion of them that are just that dumb. Yeah. They and they hate the Shia. I mean, they're, you know, long war with Iraq and Iran. There's a lot of prejudice there. And so it's kind of like fits their worldview. So if something happens, they're like, yeah. But I'm like, man, look what the Israelis are doing to you. Look what they've done to your brothers and sisters. I don't know. But I just don't have these weird. You're talking about the it's going to be the really religious people that get mad. And that doesn't tend to be the smart half.
I know. Yeah. And you would think, I mean, today I interviewed Jason Jones about Israel's destruction of Christian communities in the West Bank and in Southern Lebanon right now. And how do you get American Christians to care when they don't even know? And they would assume that the Israeli Jews are on the Christian side rather than being the ones who are destroying them. Isn't it the radical Muslims that want to destroy all the Christian communities in the Middle East? And it is like, well, yeah, but only after America and Israel destroy their secularist protectors first, you know, but... and and and pay the saudi preachers who who you know say the only good she is a dead shia and all that stuff the radicalized imams and madras is the cia i'm sorry i have to jump off dude i got another interview it's been this is like my ninth
interview of the day and i'm superior in high demand i appreciate it all your time man i just wanted to thank you so much for what you're doing too ryan how stupid is is president will he get an off-ramp or he just keep digging a grave yeah we'll see yeah but good luck on there and thanks for what you're doing for for all this time man i've known you a long time i've listened to all your just about all your shows since like i don't know since before the iraq war i think like around 9 11 and i went back and listened to older ones like and on even back with goyet and all that so you've always been kind of a center when Raimondo died the first thought I had was that we still got
Scott like that was my second place yeah thanks yeah appreciate that all right see
you all right man I'm gonna I'm gonna rant while you're gone so you can even butt out all right guys Scott why are you uh why are you bare back there just a few books oh I'm moving okay everything's packed up it's slow going man Tell them your socials and all that. The Scott Horton Show.
X.com slash Scott Horton Show. YouTube. Everything slash Scott Horton Show. And check out the Scott Horton Academy. ScottHortonAcademy.com. Oh, and Ryan, you'll like this, man. How about this? TheFactsAboutIran.com. That's me. TheFactsAboutIran.com.
All right. See you guys. Thanks. Scott Horton Show on everything, everybody. And TheFactsAboutIran.com. That's a new one for me. That's him. So we'll go in. Check that out. And he also has a show with Daryl Cooper on YouTube. But just follow his Twitter. And from there, you can get to everything else. And of course, Libertarian Institute and antiwar.com is still things there. And all those guys from that institute, you know, Dave DeCamp and Kyle Azalone and all these people that write on antiwar.com. There's a lot of overlap and you should really be following all these people. I hope Trump isn't so stupid that he does try to Nixon his way through after the markets close on Friday. Of course, you know, he'll wait for the stock markets to close. And then he'll try to obliviate, which is not a word. He'll try to obliterate Iran. It will fail and things are going to get worse. And my fear is once the Marines die, then Americans like, oh, you killed our guys, even though we sent them there to kill them.
And then we're stuck in it like Vietnam. We just kind of incrementally get further and further in this hole and we can't get out. America needs to leave. We should be trading with Iran, Iraq, and all of these people. We just buy the oil and gas. It costs way less than trying to steal it and let Israel deal with their own problems. And if Hezbollah and Iran continue the war after America cuts out, so be it. Israel deserves everything they get. Peace.